[December 2024, next 4 years] Do you think...

I first wrote these questions in December 2024, and then shared the questions with some friends and really enjoyed hearing their answers.

These are all yes or no questions. Some of them, as of today (July 12, 2025), are already answered.

You should make your own list of questions, write down your answers, and then come back in 4 years to see how the future shaped up.

Note: I chose not to filter any of these questions, regardless of what has happened since when I wrote the list. If you're mad at this list, chill, I'm not going to change it.

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Table of Contents:

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4 years from now...

Politics & Government

• Do you think abortion will be banned federally?
• Do you think JD Vance wins the republican nomination?
• Do you think the US deports more than 1m illegal immigrants?
• Do you think the department of education gets abolished?
• Do you think Nancy Pelosi resigns/leaves office?
• Do you think Donald Trump attempts to get a 3rd term?
• Do you think guns are banned in the US?
• Do you think the US will leave NATO?
• Do you think personal income tax will be cut?
• Do you think personal income tax will go up?
• Do you think Elon runs for political office?
• Do you think a constitutional amendment will be passed?
• Do you think pharmaceutical advertising will get banned?
• Do you think IVF gets banned?
• Do you think the US defaults on its debt?
• Do you think mushrooms will be legalized in the US?
• Do you think the US legalizes marijuana?

International Affairs & Conflicts

• Do you think the war in Ukraine ends?
• Do you think the war in Gaza ends?
• Do you think world war 3 breaks out?
• Do you think China invades Taiwan?
• Do you think an attack happens on US soil?

Financial Markets & Cryptocurrency

• Do you think BTC hits $100k?
• Do you think S&P hits 8k?
• Do you think NVDA hits $10T market cap?
• Do you think $DOGE hits $1?
• Do you think OpenAI goes public?
• Do you think we'll experience a downturn of 10% or more in the stock market in any 30 day period?
• Do you think we see a crypto crash?
• Do you think X goes public?

Technology & Innovation

• Do you think Apple releases AR glasses?
• Do you think Tesla FSD gets approval in California for commercial use? I.e owners can earn income from their cars passively.
• Do you think a state other than California will approve autonomous driving?
• Do you think Google gets broken up?
• Do you think Meta gets broken up?
• Do you think Siri becomes amazing?
• Do you think the apple 30% tax will go down?
• Do you think Tesla launches a phone?
• Do you think drone delivery becomes widespread?
• Do you think the Tesla Roadster gets delivered?
• Do you think a Tesla Humanoid gets delivered?
• Do you think TikTok gets banned?
• Do you think Neuralink becomes commercially available? (Anyone can buy it and install it)
• Do you think high speed rail gets deployed in the US?

Economy & Society

• Do you think Chinas population shrinks?
• Do you think the price of electricity goes down in California?
• Do you think the US population grows?
• Do you think Elon Musk becomes worth $1T?
• Do you think housing market will experience a > 20% decline nationally?
• Do you think college enrollment rates go down?
• Do you think unemployment will be higher than it is today?
• Do you think literacy rates in the US go up?

Health & Medicine

• Do you think we cure cancer?
• Do you think we cure Alzheimer's?
• Do you think we experience another global pandemic?
• Do you think Ozempic gets sold over the counter?

Sports & Entertainment

• Do you think LeBron James will retire from basketball?
• Do you think Steph Curry retires?
• Do you think Wemby wins an MVP?
• Do you think GTA6 comes out?
• Do you think the PS6 comes out?
• Do you think Frank Ocean releases an album?

Space & Science

• Do you think humans land on mars?
• Do you think humans land on moon?

Natural Events

• Do you think an earthquake occurs in SF?
• Do you think a new record high temperature is hit in the US?